617
AXPZ20 KNHC 241601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN EARLY MON MORNING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA. WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35-40 KT,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-12 FT BY LATE MON MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD,
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY MON NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20-22 FT. A STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TONIGHT. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N BY TUE MORNING.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT,
AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY TUE MORNING BUT STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS OF 40-45 KT WILL PERSIST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N90W TO 06N101W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N101W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND RUNS FROM 12N115W TO 06N119W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
07N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS. A BAND OF MANLY LOW CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN NW SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS, INCLUDING THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND MEXICO TONIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN MON
MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY MON
EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY MON
EVENING. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. MODERATE N WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL RESUME AGAIN
MON NIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS BY TUE EVENING WITH ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERATED BY A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
BEGINNING MON EVENING. THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE 12 TO 18 FT RANGE IN
NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 39N136W ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, PARTICULARLY N
OF 15N AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING AND
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 15N AND
W OF 130W. SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS
ARE MODERATE IN MIXED NE WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL
DEVELOPING NEAR 32N135W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E BY MON
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT BY MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N135W TO
25N140W BY MON NIGHT, AND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING.
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GR
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