869
AXPZ20 KNHC 242109
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN EARLY MON MORNING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA. WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35-40 KT,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT BY LATE MON MORNING. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY MON
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 22 FT. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR ON MON NIGHT. A STORM WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA,
WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N BY TUE
MORNING. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 40-45 KT WILL PERSIST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS EVENT.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N90W TO 06N101W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N101W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND RUNS FROM 12N116W TO
06N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. ELSEWHERE CONVECTION
IS LIMITED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LUCAS AND PUNTA EUGENIA WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. MAINLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, INCLUDING THE BAY OF SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO, WITH MODERATE
SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE ALSO SEEN FROM 22N TO 24N
WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE
TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN NW SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, INCLUDING THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND MEXICO TONIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20
KT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF LOS CABOS. LOOKING AHEAD,
A VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION MON MORNING, WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE
BY MON EVENING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
WIND SPEEDS. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. MODERATE N WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL RESUME
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE, AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS BY TUE
EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH
THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERATED BY A VERY STRONG GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BEGINNING
MON EVENING. THE HIGHEST SEAS, IN THE 12 TO 19 FT RANGE IN NW
SWELL, ARE EXPECTED ON TUE. ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 34N136W ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, PARTICULARLY N
OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 17N AND
W OF 125W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS
ARE MODERATE IN MIXED NE WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION ON SUN, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL
DEVELOPING NEAR 32N136W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W BY MON
NIGHT, AND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
NIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH 10 TO 15 KT ON TUE. ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GR
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