537
AXPZ20 KNHC 250953
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN EARLY MON
MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35-40
KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 13 FT BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE
BY MON EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 28 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR DURING MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA,
WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N BY TUE
MORNING. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 40-45 KT WILL PERSIST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS EVENT.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 09N84W TO 04N102W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N102W TO 03N111W TO 05N119W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 07N123W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN THE
ITCZ AND RUNS FROM 12N117W TO 05N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 125W AND 136W.
ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA OFFSHORES AND THE GULF WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS ALONG THE GULF.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS,
INCLUDING THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS SLATED TO
BEGIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY MON MORNING, WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS. PLEASE, SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
OTHERWISE, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THU NIGHT ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NW WINDS ALONG AND
AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, ALSO EXTENDING TO
JALISCO OFFSHORE WATERS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. MODERATE N WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL
RESUME AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT, AND REACH NEAR GALE-FORCE
SPEEDS TUE THROUGH THU, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT TUE NIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS
GENERATED BY A VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BEGINNING MON EVENING. THE HIGHEST
SEAS, IN THE 12 TO 19 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL, ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.
ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL ALSO AFFECT
THE WESTERN GUATEMALA OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 34N136W AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS,
PARTICULARLY N OF 14N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS PROMOTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 20N AND W OF 120W PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT WITHIN THESE WINDS PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE MODERATE IN MIXED NE
WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TODAY, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL
DEVELOPING NEAR 32N136W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W BY MON
NIGHT, AND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
NIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH 10 TO 15 KT ON TUE. ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
RAMOS
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