867
AXPZ20 KNHC 290756 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 29 2026
CORRECTED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 KT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 16 FT WITH THESE WINDS. A SHIP REPORTED
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 KT A FEW HOURS AGO NEAR THE LOCATION OF
16N95.5W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY ON FRI. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 11 FT THU AND TO 6 TO 8 FT ON FRI. HOWEVER,
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN
MEXICO BEGINNING FRI, WITH THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL REACH NEAR GALE SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON AND TO GALE-
FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY REACH STRONG GALE SPEEDS LATE ON SAT.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11
TO 17 FT LATE ON SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE ZONE FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAOFFPZ7.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS EVENT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
CORRECTED
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1010 LOW THAT IS OVER
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WESTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 10N85W AND TO 14N91W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 02N100W TO 06N115W TO 06N130W AND TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-89W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA AND GULF OF
CALIFORNIA REGION SUPPORTS MOSTLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN THE GULF. ASIDE FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MEXICAN WATERS ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN DIRECTION, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EAST OF 98W, WHERE
NORTHEAST SWELL GENERATED FROM THE ONGOING GALE EVENT HAS BOOSTED
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 18N TO 23N AND FROM JUST ALONG
AND INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST TO 108W.
FOR THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH
THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT WITH THESE WINDS. NORTH MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE IN
GULF OF PANAMA AREA ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, THE
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT IS GENERATING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH PRODUCING SEAS UP OF TO 10 FT ACROSS THE
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST WATERS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL. HIGHER SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT, EXCEPT
REACHING NEAR GALE SPEEDS THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH MON. THE SAME HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE, A
STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORCING LARGE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH SPREADING ACROSS THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE LARGE TO VERY LARGE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL OVER GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR WATERS SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AT
35N136.5W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 16N140W. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS FORCING GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 22N. AN UPPER
-LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 1250W, WHICH ARE LEADING TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA, NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM 30N130W TO 20N140W. THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
GALE EVENT IS FORCING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL
DOWN TO 03N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL
ENHANCE THE TRADES, CAUSING A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT FROM THU THROUGH FRI. THE
LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING 08N BY
FRI AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ON FRI EVENING, A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
REACH 30N140W WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE IT
MOVES STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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