494
AXPZ20 KNHC 291542
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN 30 TO 35 KT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING TO 12 FT WITH THESE GALE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRI. HOWEVER, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEGINNING
FRI, WITH THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. NORTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL REACH
NEAR-GALE SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON AND TO GALE-FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT,
POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY
REACH STRONG GALE SPEEDS LATE ON SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 12 TO 17 FT LATE ON SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 05N90W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
118W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RETURNS BY FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA AND GULF OF
CALIFORNIA REGION SUPPORTS FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF. ASIDE FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MEXICAN WATERS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA PASSES INDICATED GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO
SOUTHERN JALISCO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CURRENT GALE WARNING IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING FRI NIGHT.
THESE WINDS MAY PEAK TO STRONG GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING TO AROUND 18 FT LATE ON SAT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE ON TODAY THROUGH FRI WHILE SLOWLY DECAYING. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR
88W. SEAS ARE ROUGH WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
PREVAIL IN GULF OF PANAMA AREA ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT IS
GENERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST WATERS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO EAST GAP WINDS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. NEAR
GALE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN BOTH REGIONS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONG GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS SPREADING LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
SWELL ACROSS THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW TEHUANTEPEC EVENT SHOULD
AGAIN PRODUCE LARGE TO VERY LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL OVER
THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 100W. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA, MAINLY N OF
12N AND W OF 124W. THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE
EVENT HAS GENERATED ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI, THEN DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE NW PART OF THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING. THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING 07N BY FRI
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DECAY INTO SAT. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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