316
AXPZ20 KNHC 292030
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOP IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON FRI AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. NORTH WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL REACH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON, AND GALE-FORCE ON FRI NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LASTING UNTIL LATE TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18
FT LATE ON SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N90W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER W MEXICO SUPPORTS FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE IN THE GULF. ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT, WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN WATERS ARE GENTLE
TO MODERATE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATED GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO SOUTHERN JALISCO.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY PEAK
TO STRONG GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 18
FT LATE ON SAT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY
DECAY THROUGH FRI. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SET OF
NORTHWEST SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 91W. SEAS ARE ROUGH
WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN GULF OF PANAMA AREA
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS,
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO EAST GAP WINDS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE-FORCE OVER PAPAGAYO ON SUN NIGHT AND MON, AS AN ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. A NEW
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE LARGE TO VERY LARGE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 25N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA, MAINLY N OF
10N AND W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI, THEN DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE NW PART OF THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING. THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING 07N BY FRI
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DECAY INTO SAT. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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