149
AXPZ20 KNHC 300140
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON FRI AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. NORTH WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL REACH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON, AND GALE-FORCE ON FRI NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LASTING UNTIL LATE TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FT
LATE ON SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N85W TO 04N100W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER W MEXICO SUPPORTS FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE IN THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT,
ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY PEAK
TO STRONG GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 18
FT LATE ON SAT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH
FRI. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 90W. FRESH
GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN GULF OF PANAMA AREA ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALE- FORCE OVER PAPAGAYO ON SUN NIGHT AND MON, AS AN ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN UPCOMING GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA,
MAINLY N OF 08N AND W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRI ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE TRADEWIND WATERS. THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING 07N BY FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW WATERS SAT, AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW
WATERS THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IMPACTING THE WATERS N OF
15N AND W OF 130W THROUGH SUN, THEN ROUGH SEAS FURTHER SPREADING
SE TO COVER THE WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 120W BY MON BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
AL
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