137
AXPZ20 KNHC 300830
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TODAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. NORTH WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL REACH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LASTING
UNTIL LATE TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FT LATE ON
SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 03N97W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
113W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER W MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THESE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS NW OF GUADALUPE
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY PEAK
TO STRONG GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 18 FT
LATE ON SAT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT, REACHING LOCAL
STRONG SPEEDS TODAY. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER
SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL MAY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. FRESH
GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE TO GALE- FORCE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN UPCOMING
GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA,
MAINLY N OF 07N AND W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT, ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA. THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE TRADEWIND
WATERS. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY INTO SAT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS SAT, AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A SET OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
IMPACTING THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 130W THROUGH SUN, THEN
ROUGH SEAS FURTHER SPREADING SE TO COVER THE WATERS N OF 05N AND
W OF 120W BY MON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
AL
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