175
AXPZ20 KNHC 302229
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THEREFORE, N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING, THEN GALE TO STRONG-GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND
SAT, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL LATE TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
AT 18 TO 22 FT SAT NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W TO 04N97W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES THROUGH 06N120W
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
113W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON A GALE WARNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE
SLIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THESE WATERS. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT, ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS NW OF GUADALUPE
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
SHOULD REACH STRONG-GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 18
TO 22 FT SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY TUE AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL DECAY FURTHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARD, ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE SAME GENERAL
AREA LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 89W. MODERATE
TO FRESH GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST
WATERS, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WILL POSSIBLY PEAK AT GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN UPCOMING GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE GULF
OF PANAMA SAT EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. A COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS 30N140W AND LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT IS MOVING AHEAD OF IT, MAINLY NORTH OF 27N AND W OF
120W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE TRADEWIND
WATERS. RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY INTO SAT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS GOING TO PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD
TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SAT, AND DISSIPATING ON SUN.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL USHER IN A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WITH ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IMPACTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
130W THROUGH SUN, THEN ROUGH SEAS FURTHER SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W BY MON BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
CHAN
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