568
AXPZ20 KNHC 310219
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF OF AMERICA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH HAS
USHERED IN A ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH STRONG- GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS PEAKING
NEAR 18 TO 22 FT SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC STARTING WED NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 03N98W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N98W TO 03N118W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND
94W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE OVER
THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON. A SET OF NW SWELL WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT, PREVAIL IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 88W. MODERATE
TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST
WATERS, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WILL POSSIBLY PEAK AT GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT EVENING
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES FROM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 118W. A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NW WATERS. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THAT
SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS, WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT
RANGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED
SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH SAT, THEN DISSIPATE ON SUN. LARGE NW SWELL OVER THE NW
WATERS, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 130W THROUGH SUN, THEN ROUGH SEAS
FURTHER SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 05N
AND WEST OF 120W BY MON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
AL
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