172
AXPZ20 KNHC 312258 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
UPDATED FORECAST PARAGRAPHS
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THESE WINDS WILL REACH STRONG-GALE FORCE
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT THROUGH
SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TUE MORNING.
ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REACH GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK
NEAR 12 FT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 04N98W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N98W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 101W...AND
FROM 02N TO 08N WEST OF 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE OVER
THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO
FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. A SET OF NW SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG
GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SWELL
PRODUCED BY GAP WINDS AT PAPAGAYO WILL COMBINE WITH THOSE FROM
GAP WINDS AT TEHUANTEPEC TO CAUSE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AT THE
WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 118W.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N138W. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THAT
SYSTEM HAS ALSO MOVED INTO THE GENERAL AREA, PRODUCING SEAS IN
THE 9 TO 14 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE CORE OF THE LARGE NW SWELL IS
GOING TO PRODUCE 12 TO 15 FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 130W
THROUGH SUN. WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL WILL
PRODUCE 8 TO 11 FT SEAS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N AND WEST OF 120W.
SEAS IN BOTH AFOREMENTIONED WATERS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE MON
AND MON NIGHT. AFTERWARD, ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
BRING MORE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
WATERS BY TUE.
CHAN
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