173
AXPZ20 KNHC 010145
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG GALE- FORCE WINDS,
AND SEAS TO 20 FT, IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH SUN MORNING, FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE TUE MORNING.
ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE- FORCE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 04N101W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N101W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING SUN
NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AS WELL
AS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT
WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO 25.5N140W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT
HAS USHERED IN A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 15
FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND WEST
OF ABOUT 128W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE VERY ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 12
FT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 130W THROUGH SUN,
WITH THE ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING SE TO COVER THE
WATERS NW OF 04N140W TO 30N120W BY EARLY MON BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. SEAS WITH THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE, AND BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
AL
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