356
AXPZ20 KNHC 010823
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG GALE- FORCE WINDS, AND SEAS
TO NEAR 20 FT, IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH TODAY, FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER
GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE- FORCE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 05N103W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N103W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 07N EAST OF 80W, AND FROM 04N TO
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE NW WINDS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THESE
WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL
WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE
WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AS WELL
AS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT
WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N134W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT
HAS USHERED IN A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 15
FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND WEST
OF ABOUT 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE TODAY. THE VERY ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 130W TODAY, WITH THE ROUGH
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING SE TO COVER THE WATERS NW OF
04N140W TO 30N120W BY EARLY MON BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT. SEAS WITH THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS EARLY TUE, AND BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SAME GENERAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AL
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