410
AXPZ20 KNHC 020132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS UP TO 45
KT, AND SEAS TO NEAR 15 FT, IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WINDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW GALE-FORCE BY TUE
MORNING. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES HELPS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK
NEAR 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05N97W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N97W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W, AND
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT
AND STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
JUST TO THE W OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND THEN AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL
MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS EARLY
THIS WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE
PREVAILS OVER THE NW WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 10N140W.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM A STRONG GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND
WEST OF ABOUT 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH THE NW SWELL
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL SPREAD SE TO COVER THE WATERS NW OF 04N140W
TO 30N120W BY EARLY MON BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS MON NIGHT, AND BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SAME GENERAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE NW WATERS MUCH OF THIS
WEEK WITH A GALE-FORCE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NW OF 30N140W.
AL
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