308
AXPZ20 KNHC 021506
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS UP
TO 45 KT, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FT, IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS MEASURED SEAS AROUND
14 FT RIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW GALE-FORCE BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
HELPS MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 12
FT WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77.5W TO 08N83.5W TO 03N102W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N102W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
83W AND 86.5W, FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 89W AND 100W, AND FROM
06.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK, SPREADING
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 105W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA.
SIMILAR WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA.
ROUGH SEAS ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR
DUE TO A PERSISTENT AND STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND THEN AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL
MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS EARLY
THIS WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ONCE
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE
PREVAILS OVER THE NW WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO
14N130W TO 06N140W. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM A STRONG GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AND A GALE-FORCE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT ARE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF
03N BETWEEN 88W AND 108W. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
NEAR 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH THE NW SWELL
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MID-WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE NW WATERS MUCH OF THIS
WEEK WITH A GALE-FORCE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NW OF 30N140W. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT, AND BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, AND ROUGH SEAS SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 115W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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