167
AXPZ20 KNHC 030142
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 13 FT ARE ALSO PRESENT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
HELPS MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 12
FT WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN PULSE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GALE-FORCE WINDS JUST NW OF 30N140W THROUGH TUE. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W,
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT OR GREATER NEAR 30N140W BY EARLY
TUE. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL THEN COVER THE WATERS WEST OF
A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W BY EARLY WED, THEN WEST OF A LINE
FROM 30N131W TO 19N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N123W TO 15N133W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND
20 FT NEAR 30N140W WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO JUST LESS THAN 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHILE A
LARGE SURROUND AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS
WEST OF 110W BY THEN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N86W TO 03N94W TO
03N104W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N104W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N
BETWEEN 90W AND 107W, AND FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. OTHERWISE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 105W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH THOSE WINDS. SIMILAR WINDS
ARE FOUND NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. ROUGH SEAS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO A
PERSISTENT AND STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT
WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS
THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC
WILL AGAIN PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED
MORNING, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE NW AND
NORTHERN WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS THAT WILL BRING THE
VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE LARGE NW SWELL, WITH
SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 01N140W. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM A STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE- FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AND A GALE- FORCE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT ARE OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 02N BETWEEN 88W AND 106W.
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 15N
AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL, EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE WATERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH A
SEPARATE SET OF NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY
MID- WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE NW
WATERS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A GALE-FORCE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NW
OF 30N140W. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SYSTEM, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO 20N
AND WEST OF 120W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
CONFUSED SEAS GENERATED BY ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OPEN WATERS
DOWNWIND OF THOSE GULFS INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING. SIMILAR
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GENERALLY THE SAME OPEN WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE GALE EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AL
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