448
AXPZ20 KNHC 030831
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING. BY THIS MORNING, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM THE AREA TO LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FINALLY DIMINISH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER FROM THE AREA. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA WED AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TO USHER IN ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH THIS NEXT
EVENT ARE FORECAST TO START WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE NEAR- GALE TO GALE- FORCE NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
FURTHER FROM THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND HELP FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GALE-FORCE WINDS JUST NW OF 30N140W TODAY. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W, AND SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 12 FT OR GREATER NEAR 30N140W EARLY TODAY. SEAS OF
12 FT OR GREATER WILL THEN COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 26N140W BY EARLY WED, WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO
19N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 15N133W
BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 20 FT NEAR 30N140W
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
JUST LESS THAN 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8
FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N86W TO 03N94W TO
04N106W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N106W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 88W, FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W, AND
FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND ARE
STARTING TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 105W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH THOSE WINDS. SIMILAR WINDS
ARE FOUND NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. ROUGH SEAS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO AN
ONGOING GALE- FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE- FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS PRODUCED SWELL
THAT IS BRINGING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP
WIND EVENT WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND
CONFUSED SEAS TODAY. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
TEHUANTEPEC WILL AGAIN PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE
WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
OF FONSECA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE NW AND
NORTHERN WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS THAT WILL BRING THE
VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE LARGE NW SWELL, WITH
SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N138W. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM A STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE- FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AND A GALE- FORCE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT ARE OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 02N BETWEEN 88W AND 106W.
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL, EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE WATERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH A
SEPARATE SET OF NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY
MID- WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE NW
WATERS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A GALE-FORCE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NW
OF 30N140W. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SYSTEM, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO 20N
AND WEST OF 120W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
CONFUSED SEAS GENERATED BY ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OPEN WATERS
DOWNWIND OF THOSE GULFS INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING. SIMILAR
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GENERALLY THE SAME OPEN WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AL
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