098
AXPZ20 KNHC 031523
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW WATERS GALE WARNING: A SERIES OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR DISCUSSION WATERS,
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED IMPACTS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W.
CURRENTLY 982 MB LOW PRESSURE IS WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 30N150W WITH TWO NEARBY COLD FRONTS, ONE
JUST WEST OF OUR WATERS. WINDS AHEAD OF THAT FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO RIGHT AROUND GALE NEAR 30N140W AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GALES ENDING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W WHILE THEY
CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE BY
NORTHWEST OF 30N140W WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH GALES VERY NEAR
30N140W AGAIN. PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELLS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE
SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W, AND
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 12 FT OR GREATER NEAR 30N140W. SEAS OF 12
FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N135W
TO 25N140W BY EARLY WED, WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 18N140W
BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 14N134W BY
EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT NEAR 30N140W
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO JUST
LESS THAN 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM
THE AREA TO LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FINALLY DIMINISH
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS PERSIST WELL SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOURCE REGION. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA WED AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TO USHER IN ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS WITH THIS NEXT
EVENT ARE FORECAST TO START WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE NEAR-GALE TO GALE- FORCE NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT FURTHER FROM THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS LOOSENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL THEN PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 02N97W TO
04N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 05.5N125W TO BEYOND
06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W, FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W, AND
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND ARE
STARTING TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF
THE WEEK, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS PAY PULSE TO MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA,
INCLUDING NEAR THE GULF OF MONTIJO, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
POSSIBLE WITH THOSE WINDS. SIMILAR WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF NICOYA. ROUGH
SEAS ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO
A RECENTLY ENDED GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, ROUGH SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS
THE SOURCE WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN
ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS TODAY. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
IN TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS
THU THRUOGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED
MORNING, POSSIBLY RETURNING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW WATERS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN
THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS WITHIN 30N127W TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 30N116W TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO 00N130W TO
00N140W TO 15N140W TO 30N116W. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
FROM A RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT AND A GALE-FORCE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT ARE OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 02N BETWEEN 88W AND 107W.
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
WITH A SEPARATE SET OF NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE GALE-FORCE STORM SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 120W DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, CONFUSED SEAS GENERATED BY
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OPEN WATERS DOWNWIND OF THOSE GULFS INTO
MID-WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING. SIMILAR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
GENERALLY THE SAME OPEN WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
LEWITSKY
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