325
AXPZ20 KNHC 032027
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW WATERS GALE WARNING: A SERIES OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR DISCUSSION WATERS,
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED IMPACTS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W.
CURRENTLY 979 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 43N149W WITH TWO NEARBY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS, BOTH JUST WEST OF 140W AND OUR WATERS.
WINDS AHEAD OF THAT FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO RIGHT AROUND GALE-
FORCE NEAR 30N140W AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW BARBS AROUND 30 KT AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF 140W. THE FIRST FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GALES ENDING
SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W WHILE THEY CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE BY NORTHWEST OF 30N140W WED INTO
WED NIGHT WITH GALES VERY NEAR 30N140W AGAIN, AND FORECAST JUST
SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W NOW WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
W-NW SWELLS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE
SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W, AND
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 12 FT OR GREATER SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W. SEAS
OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 25N140W BY EARLY WED, WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO
18N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 13N133W
BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT NEAR
30N140W WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST LESS THAN 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA
OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM
THE AREA TO LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FINALLY DIMINISH
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE, WITH RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
MEASURING 20-30 KT WINDS THERE NOW. RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS PERSIST
WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE FORMER SOURCE REGION. THIS
DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WED AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO USHER IN ANOTHER GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE- FORCE
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT EVENT ARE FORECAST TO START WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVENING, POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT THU
AND THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77.5W TO 02N100W TO 03N105W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N105W TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08N BETWEEN
84W AND 90W, FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W, AND FROM 06N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND ARE
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER PER RECENT ASCAT DATA
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF
THE WEEK, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS PAY PULSE TO MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE
NEAR-GALE TO GALE- FORCE NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FURTHER FROM THE AREA TODAY,
LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO
PENINSULA, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH THOSE WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF FONSECA. ROUGH SEAS ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND
WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO A RECENTLY ENDED GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE AGAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT
GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE SOURCE WINDS
DIMINISH FURTHER. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP
WIND EVENT WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND
CONFUSED SEAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED
MORNING, POSSIBLY RETURNING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW WATERS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN
THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS WITHIN THE AREA FROM
CABO SAN LAZARO TO 00N131W TO 00N140W TO 07N140W TO 30N124W TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM A
RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS ARE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF
02N BETWEEN 88W AND 107W. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W
PER RECENT ASCAT DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE SWELLS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH A LEADING AND SEPARATE SET OF OLD NW
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY THU. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE-FORCE STORM
SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE
FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, CONFUSED SEAS GENERATED BY RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE OPEN WATERS DOWNWIND OF THOSE GULFS INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SIMILAR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GENERALLY THE SAME OPEN
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
LEWITSKY
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