697
AXPZ20 KNHC 040221
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW WATERS GALE WARNING: A SERIES OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR DISCUSSION WATERS,
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED IMPACTS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS BOTH JUST WEST OF OUR WATERS. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO RIGHT AROUND GALE-
FORCE NEAR 30N140W AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH GALES
ENDING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W. ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE BY
NORTHWEST OF 30N140W WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH GALES VERY NEAR
30N140W AGAIN, AND FORECAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W WED
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE
FOR ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELLS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE
SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W. SEAS
OF 12 FT OR GREATER COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO
28N140W AND ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 15 FT. THESE VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 25N140W BY EARLY WED, WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO
18N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 13N133W
BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT NEAR 30N140W
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA WED AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TO USHER IN A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE
FORECAST TO START WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVENING,
POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT THU AND THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 04N91W TO 04N115W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N115W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W, FROM 01N
TO 05N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W, AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W
AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR AND WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WINDS PAY PULSE TO MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AT
TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 91W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
POSSIBLE WITH THOSE WINDS. ROUGH SEAS ARE WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR DUE TO A RECENTLY ENDED GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE AGAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT
GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WATERS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED
MORNING, POSSIBLY RETURNING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW WATERS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE LARGE NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN
THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS WITHIN THE AREA FROM
THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO NEAR 00N140W. MEANWHILE,
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE- FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS ARE OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 02N BETWEEN 88W AND 105W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE SWELLS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH A LEADING AND SEPARATE SET NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE-FORCE STORM SYSTEMS
DISCUSSED ABOVE, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO
20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
CONFUSED SEAS GENERATED BY RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OPEN WATERS
DOWNWIND OF THOSE GULFS INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING. SIMILAR
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER GENERALLY THE SAME OPEN WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AL
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