435
AXPZ20 KNHC 041506
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW WATERS GALE WARNING: A 992 MB STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
35N145W WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM 30N137W.5 TO 25.5N140W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF THE
FRONT TO 135W. AS THE LOW SHIFTS, ASSOCIATED GALES WILL REACH
JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
W-NW SWELLS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 16 FT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM FROM
30N132W TO 18N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W
TO 14N134W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT
NEAR 30N140W TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA TODAY AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TO USHER IN A GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE
FORECAST TO START TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 02N106W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N106W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00.5N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 77W AND
81W, FROM 02.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W, FROM 00N TO 04N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W, AND FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, SUBSIDING ROUGH SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW-N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ALONG THE NW COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND 1024 MB JUST TO THE EAST AND INLAND NEAR 29.5N108W. OTHERWISE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
DECAYING NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER
THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MODERATE
FRESH FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN
LUCAS TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 09N90W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND NEAR ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY, POSSIBLY
RETURNING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW WATERS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A SEPARATE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE, WITH SEAS IN THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE PREVAILING MAINLY OVER
THE WATERS FROM 03N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W, MIXING WITH ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED FROM RECENTLY ENDED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE-FORCE
STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, SEAS AROUND 8 FT WITH A LEADING AND
SEPARATE SET NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY
THU, WHILE MIXING WITH OLD SWELLS FROM NOW ENDED GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE-FORCE WIND EVENTS TO
GENERATE CONFUSED SEAS. SIMILAR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE
NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE THERE.
LEWITSKY
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