312
AXPZ20 KNHC 042127
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW WATERS GALE WARNING: A 996 MB STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
36N143W WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM 30N136W TO 24N140W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT
PER CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED GALES
ARE REACHING JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMISH SHORTLY. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED 30 KT WIND BARBS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST GALE
AREA. PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELLS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 24N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 18 FT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM FROM
30N132W TO 18N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W
TO 16N136W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT
NEAR 30N140W TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE AND
BRIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL USHER IN A GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT THU NIGHT.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS, PEAKING TO
AT LEAST 18 FT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79.5W TO 02.5N99W TO
05.5N115.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N115.5W TO 05N125W TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N
TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 82.5W, FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND
102W, AND FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS THAT WERE RECENTLY
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES HAVE SUBSIDED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW-N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF PER RECENT ASCAT DATA, WITH
THESE WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING
ALONG THE NW COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND 1024 MB JUST TO THE
EAST AND INLAND NEAR 29.5N108W. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ANOTHER SET
OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF ROUGH
NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MODERATE FRESH FROM
NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR
CABO CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 08N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N
WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO
PENINSULA PER THE SAME ASCAT DATA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC COMMENCING TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW WATERS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, AN AREA OF MIXED SWELL WITH CONFUSED SEAS
OF 7 TO 8 FT PREVAILS FROM ROUGHLY 04N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND
120W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL PER RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE NW WATERS GALE WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE-FORCE
STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
POSSIBLE FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SEAS AROUND 8 FT IN
MIXED SWELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OPEN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY THU. SIMILAR AND SLIGHTLY
LARGER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS
POSSIBLE THERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
REINFORCING NW SWELLS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS BEHIND IT.
LEWITSKY
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