707
AXPZ20 KNHC 050143
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 23N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 20 FT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM FROM
30N132W TO 18N140W BY EARLY THU, AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N123W
TO 16N136W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT
NEAR 30N140W TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT THU AND THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 18 FT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79.5W TO 02.5N99W TO
05.5N115.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N115.5W TO 05N125W TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N
TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 104W, AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W
AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
DECAYING MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT. A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER
THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THE END OF THE WEEK,
SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BEFORE DECAYING. WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 08N91W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THU THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL PULSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN MAY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL IS OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, AN AREA OF MIXED
SWELL WITH CONFUSED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT PREVAILS FROM ROUGHLY 04N
TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 115W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
WATERS N OF 20N, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N
TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SEAS AROUND 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OPEN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT BY EARLY THU. SIMILAR AND SLIGHTLY LARGER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE THERE. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND REINFORCING NW SWELLS IN THE NW CORNER
OF THE WATERS BEHIND IT.
AL
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