847
AXPZ20 KNHC 050832
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N133.5W TO 22N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 20 FT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N123W TO 16N136W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 40-45 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 18 FT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N87W TO 02N92W TO
04N116W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N116W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN
89W AND 93W, AND FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THE END OF THE WEEK, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. WINDS MAY PULSE TO
MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO
SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND
ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THU THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL PULSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN MAY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL IS OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
WATERS N OF 20N, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N
TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENTS POSSIBLE THERE. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
REINFORCING NW SWELLS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS BEHIND IT.
AL
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