378
AXPZ20 KNHC 060136
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT, POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 45
KT TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS,
PEAKING AROUND 20 FT TONIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N129W TO 15N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 16 FT AT 30N136W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
30N124W TO 13N135W BY EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT, WHEN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W, WITH THOSE
REMNANT SEAS DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N86W TO 03N112W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N112W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W, FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W, AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W
AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THE END OF THE WEEK, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING, WITH ANOTHER SET ARRIVING
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO
MODERATE FRESH FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CABO
SAN LUCAS TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AT TIMES DUE TO A LOCALLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH SIMILAR WINDS AT TIMES NEAR CABO
SAN LAZARO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RECENT GALE-FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL PULSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN MAY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL IS OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLE FROM 07N
TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUE
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE NW WATERS. THAT COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND REINFORCING NW SWELLS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
WATERS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE THERE.
AL
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