760
AXPZ20 KNHC 060832
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
COVER THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 14N140W AND ARE
CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 15 FT AT 30N133W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY SAT.
AFTERWARDS, A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WITH THIS SWELL
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF 110W, WITH THOSE REMNANT
SEAS DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N86W TO 03N109W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N109W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W, FROM 01N
TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 114W, AND FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W
AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF, AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TODAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE- FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL PULSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN MAY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT W-NW SWELL IS OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE LARGE SWELLS DISCUSSED ABOVE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE W-NW SWELLS DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W.
THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IMPACTS THE NW WATERS. THAT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
REINFORCING NW SWELLS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS BEHIND IT.
MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS OVER THESE
WATERS.
AL
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