564
AXPZ20 KNHC 062130
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 06 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO AROND 35 KT ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO 15 FT (4.5 M).
THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUN. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS.
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE OVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 126W
AND 136W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE PEAKING TO 15 FT (4.5 M)
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
SAT. AFTERWARD, A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT (2.5 M) OR GREATER
WITH THIS SWELL WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 110W,
WITH THE REMNANT SEAS DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA THROUGH
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANAMA, AND CONTINUES TO 06N84W TO 01N90W
AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 03N100W TO 03N107W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 03N110W TO 03N120W TO 05N130W AND
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W AND WITHIN 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEST OF ABOUT 108W WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EAST OF 108W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT AND
WEAKER WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE
NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF 28N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
SWELL W OF 110W, AND 3 TO 5 FT ALSO IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL E OF 110W. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT NORTHWEST SWELL IS MIXING
WITH A LONG- PERIOD SOUTH SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOWER SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS
ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SET OF
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
100W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, A GALE- FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE TO LATE ON MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS PRESENT OVER THE NW WATERS.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 28N129.5W, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 21N110W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF ABOUT 20N AND WEST OF 120W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
NORTH OF 11N. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED FROM THE ONGOING GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT ARE SPREADING WESTWARD
REACHING TO NEAR 110W AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS OVER THOSE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IMPACTS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION DOMAIN. THAT COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND A REINFORCING SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE NEXT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE
OVER THOSE WATERS.
AGUIRRE
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