172
AXPZ20 KNHC 070852
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE DURING THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT: ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE OVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 120W
AND 132W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE PEAKING TO 14 FT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO JUST
BELOW 12 FT TODAY. AFTERWARD, A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WITH THIS SWELL WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WEST OF
ABOUT 110W, WITH THE REMNANT SEAS DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 03N103W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE E OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 20N-26N. LIGHT AND WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS EXCEPT N OF 24N, WHERE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
100W DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER SET OF LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
CURRENT ONE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...CORRECTED
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LATE ON MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL PREVAILS OVER THE NW WATERS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 30N129W, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N118W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE
ROUGH IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED
FROM THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT ARE
SPREADING WESTWARD REACHING TO NEAR 110W AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS OVER THOSE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ LEADING TO AN
EXPANSION OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N AND WEST
OF 110W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION
DOMAIN. THE FRONT MAY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W EARLY
NEXT WEEK USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND A REINFORCING SET
OF NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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