389
AXPZ20 KNHC 071558
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 07 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW GALE-FORCE SUN AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE
BACK UP TO GALE-FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS AFTERWARD INTO EARLY ON TUE. SEAS IN THE GULF
REGION ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 7 FT EARLY ON TUE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS.
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT: ROUGH TO AROUND 12 FT ARE
OVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF ABOUT 26N BETWEEN 119W AND
125W. 20W AND 132W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE PEAKING TO 14 FT
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD,
A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL COVER MOST OF THE WATERS
WEST OF ABOUT 110W ON SUN, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NEAR 100W ON TUE
AFTER MERGING WITH NORTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N78W TO 04N90W TO 02.5N100W AND TO
03N105W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 02N115W TO 05N130W
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
03N TO 09N BETWEEN 105.5W-116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY E OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 22N TO 23N AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT AND
WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS EXCEPT NORTH
OF ABOUT 21N, WHERE NORTHWEST SWELL IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
100W THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING. ANOTHER
SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AND CONTINUE
CONTINUE INTO LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL PREVAILS OVER THE NW WATERS.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 31.5N129W, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 126W
AND 135W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH WITH THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 15N WEST OF 135W,
AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE ROUGH IN LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED FROM THE ONGOING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT ARE SPREADING WESTWARD REACHING
TO NEAR 110W AS SEEN IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASS OVER THOSE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST SWELL DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM
06N TO 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME LATE ON MON AND INTO TUE
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
AGUIRRE
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