409
AXPZ20 KNHC 080245
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW GALE-FORCE SUN AFTERNOON,
THEN PULSE BACK UP TO GALE-FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AFTERWARD INTO EARLY ON
TUE. SEAS IN THE GULF REGION ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 7
FT EARLY ON TUE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N92W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MOSTLY GENTLE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 110W, AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EAST OF 110W TO NEAR 99W. LIGHT AND WEAKER
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 28N, AND GENTLE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 28N. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE
MEXICAN WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 110W.
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE
EVENT, THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH TO NEAR 108W
ON SUN, THEN DECAY. ANOTHER SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL MAY REACH THE
OUTER BOUNDARY OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 30N TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON TUE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DECAY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO LATE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AREA AT 30N131W,
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 127W AND 136W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
FROM 11N TO 14N WEST OF 135W, AND FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM
06N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 12 FT
IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED FROM
THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT ARE SPREADING
WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W AS SEEN IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES OVER THOSE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER SET
OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE IMPACTING THE WATERS WEST
OF ABOUT 130W AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 06N
TO 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME LATE ON MON AND INTO TUE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
8 TO 11 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
ERA
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