975
AXPZ20 KNHC 081601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 08 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK UP TO GALE-FORCE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE STRONG SPEEDS AFTERWARD INTO
EARLY ON TUE. SEAS IN THE GULF REGION ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
6 TO 8 FT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY ON TUE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
ON MON DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 01N81W. THE ITCZ IS IDENTIFIED TO BEGIN AT 04N90W AND
CONTINUE TO 02N102W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO 05N110W AND WESTWARD
TO 04N120W TO 04N130W AND TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
108W-110W, AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W-116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIGHT AND WEAKER WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 29N, AND GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE SOUTH OF 29N. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE MEXICAN WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 110W. SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE
EVENT, THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH TO NEAR 108W
TODAY, THEN DECAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM LATE TUE INTO WED
WHILE WEAKENING. A SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IN THE WAKE OF FRONT
MAY MOVE THROUGH THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AREA AT 31N130W,
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 126W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 13N WEST OF 130W,
AND FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 23N WEST OF ABOUT 120W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL MIXED WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES, EXCEPT MIXED WITH NORTHEAST
TO EAST SWELL WEST OF 125W. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED FROM THE
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND GALE EVENT ARE SPREADING
WESTWARD TO NEAR 108W AS SEEN IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THOSE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6 TO 8 THROUGH MON, HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 127W AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME LATE ON MON AND
INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
AGUIRRE
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