998
AXPZ20 KNHC 082330 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2330 UTC SUN FEB 08 2026
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL AGAIN INDUCE GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MON, DIMINISH TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE INTO EARLY TUE, TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD INTO WED AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE
AT FRESH TO NEAR GALE SPEEDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU, AND
DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AFTERWARD INTO THU NIGHT. PEAK
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS MAY REACH TO NEAR 10 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL TUE AFTERNOON.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS THERE WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE
TONIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENTLY IDENTIFIABLE. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N79W
AND TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 85.5W. THE ITCZ IS IDENTIFIED TO
BEGIN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 01S87W AND TO 01S105W TO 03N120W
TO 04N130W AND TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA, WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHILE MOSTLY GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN SECTION.
SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF AND 2 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
ARE OVER THE MEXICAN WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
IN LONG-PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF
107W.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE SOON TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT, THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF
17N AND WEST OF 107W WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
FROM LATE TUE INTO WED WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, A SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE DECAYING
WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONDITIONS, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, MOSTLY FRESH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG BY EARLY THIS EVENING, DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AREA AT
31N132W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES REVEAL LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 126W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 16N WEST OF 130W,
AND FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 19N WEST OF ABOUT 124W.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL MIXED WITH WIND GENERATED WAVES, EXCEPT MIXED WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL WEST OF ABOUT 128W. FRESH EAST WINDS
GENERATED FROM THE RECENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP-WIND GALE EVENT
HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH TUE. THE TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME
LATE ON MON AND INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART
OF THE AREA, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IN PLACE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT
IN NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF 30N AND BETWEEN 128W AND 131W AT THAT TIME.
AGUIRRE
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