124
AXPZ20 KNHC 090916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS MAY REACH TO NEAR 11 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST SWELL BY TUE AFTERNOON.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N114W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 03N140W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 16N114W TO 03N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITH THE SECOND TROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 108W-118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA, WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE MEXICAN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT,
THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 107W
WILL DECAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM LATE TUE INTO WED WHILE
WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, A SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE DECAYING WED
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONDITIONS, FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, THE STRONG
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONE WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 125W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
FROM 06N TO 15N WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 10
FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH WIND GENERATED
WAVES, EXCEPT MIXED WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL WEST OF ABOUT
128W. FRESH EAST WINDS GENERATED FROM THE RECENT GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP-WIND GALE EVENT HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR
105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH TUE. THE TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME
LATE ON MON AND INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART
OF THE AREA, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IN PLACE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT
IN NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF 30N AND BETWEEN 128W AND 131W AT THAT TIME.
ERA
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