566
AXPZ20 KNHC 091514
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
MAY REACH TO NEAR 11 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL BY TUE AFTERNOON.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ROUGH
SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N85W TO
00N95W TO 01N100W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N100W TO 02N110W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 00N TO 04N
BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE NW
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MOST AREAS OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT,
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM LATE TUE INTO WED WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE, A SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE DECAYING WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONDITIONS, FRESH NE WINDS
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AS NOTED IN AN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, THE FRESH
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
NEAR THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. THE PATTERN
ELSEWHERE IS DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO
EAST NORTH OF 20N, ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 20N
WEST OF 125W. OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES CONFIRMED A
BROAD AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
105W, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N ALONG THE WEAKENING
RIDGE, BUT WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 30N140W AND INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD
AND REACHES A POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 21N140W EARLY TUE. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT LARGE SHORTER-PERIOD
NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST
OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WED THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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