089
AXPZ20 KNHC 092107
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO 00N100W TO 02N110W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N115W TO 03N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS DIMINISHED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, BUT STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT
SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED INTO THU. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE SWELL INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI FOLLOWED BY FRESH
NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH,
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO TUE, AND THEN AGAIN LATE WED
INTO THU.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, BUT A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED A
LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION. IT ALSO SHOWED A STREAM OF GAP WINDS EMITTING FROM
THE GULF OF FONSECA AREA, AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
SEAS NOT APPRECIABLY SUBSIDING UNTIL SAT. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
NEAR THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W, AND UNDER
THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 10N120W. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 115W FROM 06N TO 15N. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ALONG THIS TROUGH, SOUTHWEST OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND. FARTHER WEST,
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE
WINDS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N, WEST OF 125W.
FARTHER NORTH, THE SCATTEROMETER CAPTURED A SMALL CIRCULATION
NEAR 33N133W, WHICH IS THE PARENT LOW ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 25N
WEST OF 130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. THE SWELL IS REINFORCING AN AREA OF OLDER SWELL IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN
THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
30N125W TO 21N140W EARLY TUE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE
NIGHT, BUT LARGE SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL
COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N WED THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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