333
AXPZ20 KNHC 100310
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO 02N97W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 02N97W TO 03N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 01S TO 06.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED INTO THU. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI FOLLOWED BY FRESH
NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH,
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO TUE, AND THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT
INTO THU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. IT ALSO SHOWED A STREAM OF GAP WINDS
EMITTING FROM THE GULF OF FONSECA AREA, AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SEAS NOT APPRECIABLY SUBSIDING UNTIL SAT. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN
UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 10N. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT NEAR THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 106.5W AND 116W. THIS
AFTERNOON A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SOUTHWEST OF
CLIPPERTON ISLAND. FARTHER WEST, THE SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO
CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 20N, WEST OF 125W. FARTHER NORTH, THE SCATTEROMETER
CAPTURED A SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR 33N133W, WHICH IS THE PARENT
LOW ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 25.5N WEST OF 133W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SWELL IS
REINFORCING AN AREA OF OLDER SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN
THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
30N126W TO 22N140W EARLY TUE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, BUT LARGE SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT WILL
COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N WED THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page