958
AXPZ20 KNHC 100926
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 01N95W TO 01N12W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N112W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED IN RELATION TO THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED INTO THU. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI FOLLOWED BY FRESH
NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH,
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY, AND THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SEAS NOT APPRECIABLY SUBSIDING UNTIL SUN. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED NORTH FROM 06N TO 20N
BETWEEN 105W AND 113W IN ASSOCIATION TO AN UPPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. FARTHER WEST, RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
NEAR 20N, WEST OF 125W. FARTHER NORTH, THE SCATTEROMETER CAPTURED
A CIRCULATION NEAR 34N131W, WHICH IS THE PARENT LOW ACCOMPANYING
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NORTH OF 23.5N WEST OF 130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SWELL IS REINFORCING AN
AREA OF OLDER SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING MOST OF THE AREA
WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES FROM 30N124W TO
22N140W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT LARGE SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 15 FT WILL COVER THE
AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT
THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WED
THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
KRV
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