645
AXPZ20 KNHC 101603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 02N90W TO 02N110W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N110W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED IN RELATION TO THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
STALL AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THU. LARGE
NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI
AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS AND
LARGE SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY, AND THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEAS NOT APPRECIABLY SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE SAT.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM NEAR CLARION ISLAND AT 18N115W TO
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER 10N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE COLD-CORE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
NEAR 10N120W. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN
THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH, REACHING
FROM NEAR CLIPPERTON ISLAND AT 10N110W SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS TO 02N113W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. A LARGE PATCH OF 7 TO 8 FT SEAS LINGERS
FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W, THE REMNANT OF A MIX OF NW
SWELL AND SHORTER-PERIOD NE TO E SWELL ORIGINATING FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS FARTHER EAST. TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 130W.
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
SOUTH OF THAT, FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS WEST
OF 125W, WITH COMBINED SEAS STILL 8 TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF NW SWELL
AND EFFECTS OF THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHES FROM 30N124W TO
22N140W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT LARGE SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 15 FT WILL COVER THE
AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT
THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WED
THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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