974
AXPZ20 KNHC 102107
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 02N90W TO 02N110W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N110W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, BUT THIS MAY BE
DIMINISHING BY NOW. THE SAME PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THU. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND REINFORCE THE
PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NORTH
OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, GAP WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CURRENTLY, BUT FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS MAY PULSE AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY WED. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER 10N120W. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, REACHING FROM NEAR CLIPPERTON ISLAND AT 10N110W
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO 02N113W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. A RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASS VERIFIED A LARGE PATCH OF 7 TO 8 FT SEAS LINGERING
FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W, THE REMNANT OF A MIX OF NW
SWELL AND SHORTER-PERIOD NE TO E SWELL ORIGINATING FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS FARTHER EAST. TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W.
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
SOUTH OF THAT, FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS WEST
OF 120W, WITH COMBINED SEAS STILL 8 TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF NW
SWELL AND EFFECTS OF THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS. MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LARGE
SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 15 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WED THROUGH FRI,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT
AS IT MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page