942
AXPZ20 KNHC 110312
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N90W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT THIS TIME WITHIN THE AREA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WITHIN THIS WINDS ARE 3 TO
5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT 1
TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH WED NIGHT. LARGE NW
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE WED AND WED NIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WED NIGHT INTO THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI
AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS AND
LARGE SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS MAY PULSE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT. FRESH N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER 12N122W. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, REACHING FROM NEAR 13N112W SOUTHWARD TO
04N118W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS VERIFIED A
LARGE PATCH OF 7 TO 8 FT SEAS LINGERING FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN
95W AND 110W, THE REMNANT OF A MIX OF NW SWELL AND SHORTER-
PERIOD NE TO E SWELL ORIGINATING FROM GAP WIND EVENTS FARTHER
EAST. TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 121W. STRONG NW WINDS
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT. SOUTH OF THAT,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
120W, WITH COMBINED SEAS STILL 8 TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF NW SWELL
AND EFFECTS OF THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LARGE
SHORTER-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 15 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WED THROUGH FRI,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KRV
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