504
AXPZ20 KNHC 110936
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77.5W TO 01N88W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 01N90W TO 04N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 05N TO 08N AND WEST OF 80W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WITHIN THIS WINDS
ARE 2 TO 4 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL,
EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TONIGHT
INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRI AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY
FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER
SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS MAY PULSE TONIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT. FRESH N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N113.5W SOUTHWARD TO
05N119.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
SOUTH OF THAT, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE DEEP
TROPICS WEST OF 134W, WITH COMBINED SEAS STILL 8 TO 10 FT IN A
MIX OF NW SWELL AND EFFECTS OF THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TODAY. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 134W TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LARGE SHORTER- PERIOD NW
SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
120W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N TODAY THROUGH FRI, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF NW TO N STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. THIS FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KRV
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