116
AXPZ20 KNHC 111556
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77.5W TO 01N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 01N90W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED GUADALUPE ISLAND AND IS APPROACHING THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. LARGE NW SWELL TO 8 FT FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH S WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE DIMINISHING. MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES AND
MODERATE NW SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TONIGHT
INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRI AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY
FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE SAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS MAY PULSE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO SAT. FRESH N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A PERSIST
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N114W TO 06N118W. COMBINED SEAS EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAVE BEEN UP TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF NW SWELL AND SHORTER
PERIOD NE TO E SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS EVENTS FARTHER
EAST, BUT THE SWELL IS LIKELY SUBSIDING THIS MORNING. FARTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT FOLLOWS A FRONT
REACHING FROM THE US-MEXICO BORDER TO 26N120W TO 21N130W. A 1014
MB GALE CENTER NEAR 31N132W, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT,
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA.
STRONG WIND AND REINFORCING SWELL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF 30N TODAY, THEN MERGE WITH AND REINFORCE THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W TONIGHT INTO THU.
MEANWHILE, THE OLDER NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 20N, AND NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 130W IN LINGERING
TRADE WIND SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES BY FRI AND THE
MERGED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHER PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT LARGE 8 TO 11 FT N TO NW
SWELL WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 125W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF 20N SAT AND SUN, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 115W. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8 FT NORTH
OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W BY THEN, WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W
LATE SAT, THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND
WEST OF 120W THROUGH LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF STRONG
WIND AND ROUGH SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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