870
AXPZ20 KNHC 112115
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 02N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 02N90W TO 01N100W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASSES CONFIRMED LARGE NW SWELL TO 8 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE NW SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND REINFORCE
THE PREVIOUS FRONT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE SAT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT OVER
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG GAP WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO SAT. FRESH N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT FOLLOWS A FRONT REACHING
FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR ROSARIO TO 24N120W TO
20N130W. FARTHER NORTH, A 1016 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 30N132W,
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTHWEST TO
28N140W. THE COMBINED FEATURES ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND REINFORCING SWELL. THIS IS MERGING
WITH A LARGER ARE OF OLDER NW SWELL THAT IS 8 TO 12 FT REACHING
WEST OF A LINE FROM GUADALUPE ISLAND TO 18N140W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. FARTHER
EAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 13N114W TO 06N116W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MERGE
WITH AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND SEAS TO 15 FT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST
OF 130W TONIGHT INTO THU. MEANWHILE, THE OLDER NW SWELL TO 8 FT
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N, AND NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
130W IN LINGERING TRADE WIND SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES
FRI AND THE MERGED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHER PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT LARGE 8 TO
11 FT N TO NW SWELL WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 125W.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N SAT AND SUN, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 115W. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO
8 FT NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W BY THEN, WITH MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
30N140W LATE SAT, THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A NEW
ROUND OF STRONG WIND AND ROUGH SEAS, WITH NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT
POSSIBLE NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W BY MON NIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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