627
AXPZ20 KNHC 120256
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 03N89W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 03N89W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT NEAR THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL TO 10 FT IS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE NW SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT, REACHING THE
OUTER WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
BY THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND
REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, WITH FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE
SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE SAT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL.
FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PULSE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. STRONG
GAP WINDS MAY AGAIN BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS, WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. GENTLE
BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO SAT. FRESH N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT REACHING
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR TO 19N129W. TO THE NW, A 1016 MB
LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N132W, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REACHING SOUTHWEST TO 25N136W TO 27N140W. THE COMBINED FEATURES
ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WINDS
AND REINFORCING SWELL TO 14 FT. THIS SWELL IS MERGING WITH THE
OLDER NW SWELL BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MERGE
WITH AND REINFORCE THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND SEAS TO 14 FT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST
OF 130W THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE, THE OLDER NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N, AND NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 130W
IN LINGERING TRADE WIND SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES FRI
AND THE MERGED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHER PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT LARGE 8 TO 11 FT N TO
NW SWELL WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 125W. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF 20N THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 115W. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8 FT NORTH
OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W BY THEN, WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE SAT, THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF STRONG WIND
AND ROUGH SEAS, WITH NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT POSSIBLE NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 120W BY MON NIGHT.
ERA
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