797
AXPZ20 KNHC 191600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
VERY LARGE NW SWELL: VERY LARGE, MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL WITH
SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 128W,
WHILE ROUGH SEAS COVER A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 110W. A SOFAR BUOY REPORTED
SEAS OF 13 FT NEAR 30N125W AT 1500 UTC. THESE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE ZONE FORECASTS AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAOFFPZ7.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 00N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
00N108W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 79W-86W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N GULF OF CALIFORNIA, BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND THE PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, VERY LARGE, MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF
12 FT OR GREATER IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 128W, WHILE
ROUGH SEAS COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF 110W. FRESH
NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 3-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ACCELERATE NW WINDS TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE PACIFIC
WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL INDUCE A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN INTO AT LEAST MON NIGHT.
VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS GAP WIND EVENT,
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 79W-86W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORCING
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH FRI. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN
FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE
NW SWELL OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS BEGINNING ON
MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 37N151W
TO 30N135W TO 22N120W TO 13N100W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS
HIGH TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 09N-22N WEST OF 120W. SEAS ARE 8-13 FT OVER THE AREA
WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND N
SWELL. FARTHER NORTH, VERY LARGE, MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL WITH
SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 128W,
WHILE ROUGH SEAS COVER A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-25N WEST OF 137W, DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR 140W BORDER.
AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER ON
FRI AND SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS,
REDUCING THE TRADES DOWN TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES AND LARGE N SWELL WILL
ALSO STEADILY DIMINISH BY SAT. THE VERY LARGE NW SWELL ALONG OUR
N BORDER WILL ALSO FADE WILL PUSHING EQUATORWARD, DROPPING BELOW
8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, THE CENTER OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS, BUT THE
SYSTEM WILL ADVECT LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER OUR NW
WATERS BEGINNING ON MON.
LANDSEA
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