106
AXPZ20 KNHC 192120
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 00N107W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 08N78W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N107W TO
00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 83W-87W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
WITH THE REST OF FORECAST WATERS EXPERIENCING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS. LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF AT 8-11 FT ARE
OCCURRING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE,
SEAS ARE 3-7 FT OVER THE SW MEXICO WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ACCELERATE NW WINDS TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE PACIFIC
WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO
EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL INDUCE A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN INTO AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS GAP WIND EVENT,
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N-06N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STRONG GALE- FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE
NW SWELL OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS ON MON AND
TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 37N150W
TO 30N133W TO 22N120W TO 13N100W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THIS HIGH TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 09N-22N WEST OF 120W. SEAS ARE 8-12 FT OVER
THE AREA WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN MIXED WIND WAVES
AND N SWELL. FARTHER NORTH, LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11
FT SEAS IS NORTHING OF 22N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-25N WEST OF 138W, DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR 140W BORDER.
AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR N BORDER TOMORROW
AND SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS,
REDUCING THE TRADES DOWN TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES AND LARGE N SWELL WILL
ALSO STEADILY DIMINISH BY SAT. THE LARGE NW SWELL ALONG OUR N
BORDER WILL ALSO FADE WHILE PUSHING EQUATORWARD, DROPPING BELOW 8
FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER WATERS MON
WITH WINDS ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
ADVECT LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER OUR NW WATERS ON MON AND
TUE, PRIMARILY WEST OF 130W.
LANDSEA
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