865
AXPZ20 KNHC 200406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 01N102W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N78W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N107W TO
01N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 09N
BETWEEN 77W AND 92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH THE REST OF FORECAST WATERS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS
OF AT 8-11 FT ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 3-7 FT OVER THE SW MEXICO WATERS
AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE N GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH ON FRI AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCELERATE NW WINDS TO FRESH AND LOCALLY
STRONG ALONG THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL INDUCE A
STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN
INTO AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE
REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4-6
FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE PANAMA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STRONG GALE- FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE
NW SWELL OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WATERS ON MON AND
TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 37N153W
SE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS
HIGH TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 07N-22N WEST OF 118W. SEAS ARE 8-12 FT OVER THE AREA
WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND N
SWELL. FARTHER NORTH, LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT
SEAS IS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4-7 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N-26N WEST OF 135W, DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR 140W BORDER.
AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR N BORDER TOMORROW
AND SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS,
REDUCING THE TRADES DOWN TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES AND LARGE N SWELL WILL
ALSO STEADILY DIMINISH BY SAT. THE LARGE NW SWELL ALONG OUR N
BORDER WILL ALSO FADE WHILE PUSHING EQUATORWARD, DROPPING BELOW 8
FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER WATERS MON
WITH WINDS ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
ADVECT LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER OUR NW WATERS ON MON AND
TUE, PRIMARILY WEST OF 130W.
RAMOS
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