942
AXPZ20 KNHC 200942
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 02S103W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 00N88W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S103W TO
02S125W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03S TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 97W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH THE REST OF FORECAST WATERS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS
OF AT 8-10 FT ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 3-7 FT OVER THE SW MEXICO WATERS
AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT TO 6 FT N OF 30N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE N GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NW WINDS TO
FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS ALONG THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO MON. LOOKING
AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL INDUCE A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO ACCOMPANY THIS GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOURCE REGION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 4-5
FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 3-4 FT.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE PANAMA,
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS MAY
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER THE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WATERS ON MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 36N153W
SE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS
HIGH TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 06N TO 21N WEST OF 124W. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT OVER THE
AREA WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND N
SWELL. FARTHER NORTH, LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT
SEAS IS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4-7 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-25N WEST OF 135W, DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 146W.
AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR N BORDER TODAY AND
SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS, REDUCING
THE TRADES DOWN TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES AND LARGE N SWELL WILL ALSO STEADILY
DIMINISH BY SAT. THE LARGE NW SWELL ALONG OUR N BORDER WILL ALSO
FADE WHILE PUSHING EQUATORWARD, DROPPING BELOW 8 FT BY SAT
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER WATERS MON WITH
WINDS ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
ADVECT LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER OUR NW WATERS ON MON AND
TUE, PRIMARILY WEST OF 130W.
RAMOS
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