267
AXPZ20 KNHC 201603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED ON SUN AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. WIND ARE FORECAST
TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO
12 FT ON SUN. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE
BY SUN EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT. LARGE SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY
FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS
FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN EVENING THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY
ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED
WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON
WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 02S103W. THE ITCZ IS S OF THE
EQUATOR AND CONTINUES FROM 02S103W TO 03S120W TO 01S140W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 01N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 28N120W TO
30N131W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
NOTED N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 29.5N
TO 30.5N. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THIS WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
W TO NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE N GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE DISSIPATING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO MON.
LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL INDUCE A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION SUN THROUGH TUE. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO ACCOMPANY THIS GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOURCE REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS OF 4
TOP 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE
WESTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON MON,
TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD,
SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO
21N W OF 130W, AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BASED ON
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. FARTHER NORTH, LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4-7 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-25N WEST OF
135W, DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 146W.
AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR N BORDER TODAY AND
SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS, REDUCING
THE TRADES DOWN TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES AND LARGE N SWELL WILL ALSO STEADILY
DIMINISH BY SAT. THE LARGE NW SWELL ALONG OUR N BORDER WILL ALSO
FADE WHILE PUSHING EQUATORWARD, DROPPING BELOW 8 FT BY SAT
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER WATERS MON WITH
WINDS ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
ADVECT LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW SWELL OVER OUR NW WATERS ON MON AND
TUE, PRIMARILY WEST OF 130W.
GR
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