046
AXPZ20 KNHC 202117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ON SUN. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY SUN EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO
18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN EVENING INTO
MON. WINDS MAY THEN STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT. A STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD
WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN EVENING
THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 01N104W. THE ITCZ IS MAINLY S OF
THE EQUATOR AND CONTINUES FROM 01N104W TO 03S120W TO 01S140W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 01N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 27N120W TO
29N131W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND N OF 30N. GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
WHILE DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT A STRONG
GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION SUN
THROUGH TUE. WINDS MAY THEN STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE
REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS OF 4
TOP 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS
OFFSHORE WESTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 25
TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 07N W
OF 115W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE
4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W BY SAT EVENING,
THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO
26N140W BY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUN THROUGH
LATE MON. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
BUILDING SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
REGION ON MON. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
GR
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